Smart people sometimes make dumb mistakes when it comes to
investing. Part of the reason for this, I guess, is that most
people don't have the time to learn what they need to know to
make good decisions. Another reason is that oftentimes when you
make a dumb mistake, somebody else--an investment salesperson,
for example--makes money. Fortunately, you can save yourself
lots of money and a bunch of headaches by not making bad
investment decisions.
Don't Forget to Diversify
The average stock market return is 10 percent or so, but to earn
10 percent you need to own a broad range of stocks. In other
words, you need to diversify. Everybody who thinks about this
for more than a few minutes realizes that it is true, but
it's amazing how many people don't diversify. For example, some
people hold huge chunks of their employer's stock but little
else. Or they own a handful of stocks in the same industry.
To make money on the stock market, you need around 15 to 20
stocks in a variety of industries. (I didn't just make up these
figures; the 15 to 20 number comes from a statistical
calculation that many upper-division and graduate finance
textbooks explain.) With fewer than 10 to 20 stocks, your
portfolio's returns will very likely be something greater or
less than the stock market average. Of course, you don't care if
your portfolio's return is greater than the stock market
average, but you do care if your portfolio's return is less than
the stock market average.
By the way, to be fair I should tell you that some very bright
people disagree with me on this business of holding 15 to 20
stocks. For example, Peter Lynch, the outrageously successful
former manager of the Fidelity Magellan mutual fund, suggests
that individual investors hold 4 to 6 stocks that they
understand well.
His feeling, which he shares in his books, is that by following
this strategy, an individual investor can beat the stock market
average. Mr. Lynch knows more about picking stocks than I ever
will, but I nonetheless respectfully disagree with him for two
reasons. First, I think that Peter Lynch is one of those modest
geniuses who underestimate their intellectual prowess. I wonder
if he underestimates the powerful analytical skills he brings to
his stock picking. Second, I think that most individual
investors lack the accounting knowledge to accurately make use
of the quarterly and annual financial statements that publicly
held companies provide in the ways that Mr. Lynch suggests.
Have Patience
The stock market and other securities markets bounce around on a
daily, weekly, and even yearly basis, but the general trend over
extended periods of time has always been up. Since World War II,
the worst one-year return has been -26.5 percent. The worst
ten-year return in recent history was 1.2 percent. Those numbers
are pretty scary, but things look much better if you look longer
term. The worst 25-year return was 7.9 percent annually.
It's important for investors to have patience. There will be
many bad years. Many times, one bad year is followed by another
bad year. But over time, the good years outnumber the bad. They
compensate for the bad years too. Patient investors who stay in
the market in both the good and bad years almost always do
better than people who try to follow every fad or buy last
year's hot stock.
Invest Regularly
You may already know about dollar-average investing. Instead of
purchasing a set number of shares at regular intervals, you
purchase a regular dollar amount, such as $100. If the share
price is $10, you purchase ten shares. If the share price is
$20, you purchase five shares. If the share price is $5, you
purchase twenty shares.
Dollar-average investing offers two advantages. The biggest is
that you regularly invest--in both good markets and bad markets.
If you buy $100 of stock at the beginning of every month, for
example, you don't stop buying stock when the market is way down
and every financial journalist in the world is working to fan
the fires of fear.
The other advantage of dollar-average investing is that you buy
more shares when the price is low and fewer shares when the
price is high. As a result, you don't get carried away on a tide
of optimism and end up buying most of the stock when the market
or the stock is up. In the same way, you also don't get scared
away and stop buying a stock when the market or the stock is
down.
One of the easiest ways to implement a dollar-average investing
program is by participating in something like an
employer-sponsored 401(k) plan or deferred compensation plan.
With these plans, you effectively invest each time money is
withheld from your paycheck.
To make dollar-average investing work with individual stocks,
you need to dollar-average each stock. In other words, if you're
buying stock in IBM, you need to buy a set dollar amount of IBM
stock each month, each quarter, or whatever.
Don't Ignore Investment Expenses
Investment expenses can add up quickly. Small differences in
expense ratios, costly investment newsletter subscriptions,
online financial services (including Quicken Quotes!), and
income taxes can easily subtract hundreds of thousands of
dollars from your net worth over a lifetime of investing.
To show you what I mean, here are a couple of quick examples.
Let's say that you're saving $7,000 per year of 401(k) money in
a couple of mutual funds that track the Standard & Poor's 500
index. One fund charges a 0.25 percent annual expense ratio, and
the other fund charges a 1 percent annual expense ratio. In 35
years, you'll have about $900,000 in the fund with the 0.25
percent expense ratio and about $750,000 in the fund with the 1
percent ratio.
Here's another example: Let's say that you don't spend $500 a
year on a special investment newsletter, but you instead stick
the money in a tax-deductible investment such as an IRA. Let's
say you also stick your tax savings in the tax-deductible
investment. After 35 years, you'll accumulate roughly $200,000.
Investment expenses can add up to really big numbers when you
realize that you could have invested the money and earned
interest and dividends for years.
Don't Get Greedy
I wish there was some risk-free way to earn 15 or 20 percent
annually. I really, really do. But, alas, there isn't. The stock
market's average return is somewhere between 9 and 10 percent,
depending on how many decades you go back. The significantly
more risky small company stocks have done slightly better. On
average, they return annual profits of 12 to 13 percent.
Fortunately, you can get rich earning 9 percent returns. You
just need to take your time. But no risk-free investments
consistently return annual profits significantly above the stock
market's long-run averages.
I mention this for a simple reason: People make all sorts of
foolish investment decisions when they get greedy and pursue
returns that are out of line with the average annual returns of
the stock market. If someone tells you that he has a sure-thing
investment or investment strategy that pays, say, 15 percent,
don't believe it. And, for Pete's sake, don't buy investments or
investment advice from that person.
If someone really did have a sure-thing method of producing
annual returns of, say, 18 percent, that person would soon be
the richest person in the world. With solid year-in, year-out
returns like that, the person could run a $20 billion investment
fund and earn $500 million a year. The moral is: There is no
such thing as a sure thing in investing.
Don't Get Fancy
For years now, I've made the better part of my living by
analyzing complex investments. Nevertheless, I think that it
makes most sense for investors to stick with simple investments:
mutual funds, individual stocks, government and corporate bonds,
and so on.
As a practical matter, it's very difficult for people who
haven't been trained in financial analysis to analyze complex
investments such as real estate partnership units, derivatives,
and cash-value life insurance. You need to understand how to
construct accurate cash-flow forecasts. You need to know how to
calculate things like internal rates of return and net present
values with the data from cash-flow forecasts. Financial
analysis is nowhere near as complex as rocket science. Still,
it's not something you can do without a degree in accounting or
finance, a computer, and a spreadsheet program (like Microsoft
Excel or Lotus 1-2-3).
About the author:
Seattle, Washington
accountant Stephen L. Nelson CPA has written more than 150
books. His bestselling book is Quicken for Dummies, which sold
more than 1,000,000 copies. His books have sold more than
4,000,000 copies in English and have been translated into more
than a dozen other languages.